How to pick your (shiny) battles.
Much has changed since the last time I wrote at length about the Secret Lairs Drop Series. The print-to-demand model that Wizards of the Coast had been using for several years was finally abandoned, mostly due to continued (and in my mind, incredibly justified) frustration over production and shipping delays. In a world where buyers are used to next-day delivery on their online orders, Wizards continually asking people to wait several months for their orders to arrive was becoming a major issue. By switching to a limited print run model earlier this year, Wizards was able to ensure that the Lairs were ready to go ahead of time.
Unfortunately, this also meant that the most popular Lairs sold out super quickly, sometimes within an hour of first going on sale. This led to more and more people attempting to get their Secret Lairs the moment they were first made available, which has caused technical snags and frustrating user experiences.
Wizards clearly isn’t done tinkering, and just last week they announced that they would be doing away with the sales timer entirely, allowing unsold Lairs to remain available for an indefinite amount of time. This change may herald an era where the “limited print run” ends up being a lot bigger to prevent them from selling out quickly, but we’ll have to wait and see. For now, all I can say is that we all have to stay on our toes since the future of Secret Lair Finance remains a moving target.
Market Price: $26.62
Market Price: $21.35
Things have changed so much that I’m completely re-writing an article on the topic I tackled over three years ago. Back then, I came up with six rules for buying Secret Lairs that I hoped would help people cut through the nonsense and make the best, most prudent financial decisions for their own collections. But do those rules still apply? Are there better rules that need to be added? Are Secret Lairs even a good investment at this point? Let’s take that journey together and find out, shall we?
Rule #1: Good Cards Will Recover Their Value, If You’re Patient
Market Price: $76.62
Market Price: $83.73
Market Price: $70.18
In the past, we’ve seen the best Secret Lair cards recover their value quite well over time. My original article used Kaleidoscope Killers as an example since that drop contained foil versions of Reaper King, Sliver Overlord, and The Ur-Dragon for just $40 total. Kaleidoscope Killers was the must-buy Secret Lair in the original release since Sliver Overlord and The Ur-Dragon sold separately for about $40 at the time of writing. The Lair was so popular, however, that those three cards fell off a cliff in value. Reaper King bottomed out at $3, while Sliver Overlord and The Ur-Dragon ended up in the $14-$15 range. For about a year, the Lair looked like a break-even.
Where are things now, several years later? Well, Reaper King is still a bust, as you can buy a copy from this drop for between $4 and $5. The Ur-Dragon faired a lot better, though, jumping up into the $80 to $100 range before a Commander Masters reprint pushed it back down to about $45:
Market Price: $56.66
Market Price: $40.54
Sliver Overlord faired even better, jumping up into the $50-$60 range during the Sliver hype of early 2021, before settling back down into the $35-$40 range by early 2023. The price jumped again last year, though, and Sliver Overlord currently sells between $60 and $80.
Of course, this example is from 2019, which is ancient history when thinking about the Secret Lair program. Things have changed multiple times since then, and it’s worth looking at more recent examples to see if the best cards from Lair drops still make recoveries like this.
Examples aren’t hard to find. Here’s Eldrazi Temple, from the Artist Series: Aleksi Briclot drop. You could snag this for about $10 when singles finally made it onto the TCGplayer marketplace, and it’s worth about $80 right now.
Market Price: $76.93
Market Price: $13.17
Market Price: $19.37
But what does this really say? Eldrazi Temple was fairly affordable before this Secret Lair was printed, and the price surge had more to do with Modern Horizons 3 not having one of the most important Eldrazi enablers than anything related to the Lair. In fact, I can’t find too many examples of recent Secret Lairs that have reprinted incredibly expensive staples in recent years, regardless of format. Wizards seem eager to save most of these cards for reprint equity in other sets, meaning that most Secret Lair cards are niche Commanders, oddball spells, or cool new variants of easy-to-acquire staples like Sol Ring or Swords to Plowshares. There are a few I can find, though, like Mana Confluence from Pride Across the Multiverse:
Market Price: $45.89
And here’s Sliver Legion from the Extra Life 2022 Secret Lair:
Market Price: $43.41
Market Price: $35.63
Market Price: $11.23
Things can take a while, though. Whenever Wizards does reprint a flashy and expensive card in a Secret Lair, it’s often a precursor to another, more widespread reprint. For example, Concordant Crossroads was reprinted in Artist Series: Sidharth Chaturvedi, making it a no-brainer buy for the value-conscious at the time. Concordant Crossroads was a $40 card on its own, and this version was gorgeous. What could go wrong?
Market Price: $18.56
Market Price: $23.53
Market Price: $21.12
As you can see, the card plummeted to $10, and that new low price was cemented by a Double Masters 2022 reprint just a few months later. Concordant Crossroads has finally started to rebound, though, with its price tag finally back up to $20. That’s recent enough that the full and still sealed Sidharth Chaturvedi Secret Lair can be snagged for under $19 shipped on the TCGplayer Marketplace, meaning that it’s actually cheaper to buy the full drop than the card alone as a single. That will likely change soon after this article is printed, but it says a lot about how many market inefficiencies still exist in the Secret Lair space.
Ultimately, I still think this rule holds true but with substantial caveats. A single Secret Lair printing doesn’t affect the overall market for that card by enough to cause much of a long-term effect, but a wider-scale reprint likely follows a Secret Lair printing, and you should think about future value with that in mind. Ultimately, cards with high reprint resilience are the best Secret Lair pickups, since these have already proven they can survive multiple reprints. Regardless, buying singles during the initial dip is nearly always a good move, as we’ll discuss later.
Rule #2: Don’t Get Foiled
Market Price: $39.56
Market Price: $18.57
Market Price: $11.82
The main appeal of the Secret Lair Drop Series is purely aesthetic. It allows Wizards to print cards with unique borders, treatments, and artistic flourishes that would never get the green light in a wide set release. They partner with unique artists, create exciting IP tie-in versions of cards that won’t be available anywhere else, and let things get weird and fun. There are Post Malone cards, Fortnite cards, Junji Ito cards, and so much more.
Most people who buy Secret Lairs do so not because it’s the savviest of business propositions, but because they enjoy the aesthetic appeal of that particular Lair and want the cards for their collection. Because of that, many players opt to spend extra for the foil copy of their chosen Lair. And why not? It’s usually just an extra ten bucks, and then you’re ensured of having the best possible version of that particular Lair.
Only, that’s not usually how things shake out. On the secondary market, the non-foil Lair is often worth just as much as the foil version, and sometimes more. For example, the non-foil version of If Looks Could Kill is worth almost $15 more than the foil version, despite the foil version costing more money at release. I can buy a foil version of Imaginary Friends for slightly less than the non-foil version right now. If you want a more comprehensive look at this trend, here’s a link to a Secret Lair article I wrote last year:ARTICLE SPOTLIGHTWhen’s is Worth it to Buy a Secret Lair?Print-to-demand has some funny consequences.Cassie LaBelle8/18/2023
If you examine enough Secret Lairs on the secondary market, it becomes clear that the only drops where paying a premium for the foil copy matters are the Basic Land drops. Magic players love foiling out their Basics, and the premium versions of these Lairs tend to hold their value quite a bit better. On all other Lairs, the non-foil version nearly always ends up either worth more, or worth less but by a substantially slimmer margin than $10.
Market Price: $21.40
Market Price: $15.30
Market Price: $22.71
What does this mean for you? Well, if you want the Secret Lair for yourself, don’t worry about it. Pay the extra $10 if you want and get the copy that excites you the most. On the secondary market, however, there are usually more people who are either okay with non-foil or actively prefer it as well as fewer non-foil copies available. Because of that, the secondary market price doesn’t align with what Wizards initially charges. If you’re buying Lairs to speculate on, or you want the best possible deal, don’t go with the foil set unless it’s a Basic Land release. $10 might not seem like a lot, but it can add up quickly over time.
Rule #3: The Superdrops Aren’t Exactly Heroic
Market Price: $72.22
Market Price: $59.33
Market Price: $230.70
While most Secret Lairs are sold a-la-carte, Wizards also releases quite a few “Secret Lair Superdrops”, where you can either buy individual Lairs as desired or have the chance to pay a lower price on five or six of them bundled together. These Superdrops often come with enticing extras, like the foil Fetch Land Superdrop several years ago. Sometimes the Superdrop Lairs are thematically connected, like the Dungeons & Dragons one that was just announced a few days ago, while other times, they’re just a random smattering of seasonal releases.
The Superdrops may seem like a great deal at the time, but they nearly always perform worse than expected on the secondary market. That’s because far more copies of each Lair end up on the secondary market. Think about it this way: when a normal Lair goes up for sale, the vast majority of people who snag it actually want the cards for themselves. They might decide to sell them later, and a few people will snap up extras in hopes of flipping them for a profit, but most of these cards end up in private collections.
That’s not true with a Superdrop. Many people only want one or two of the sets in the drop or even just the bonus cards, but they decide to buy the entire lot at a discount in hopes of flipping the extra sets for a profit, or at least to help recoup their investment. This leads to far more Superdrop Lairs ending up on the secondary market, causing the price to tank. With so many more copies of each Superdrop lair around, the price can drop to a fraction of the original price and stay there for a very long time.
The same applies to Lairs which are pack-ins with products like Festival in a Box. For example, I know a lot of people ordered Festival in Box 2024 last weekend because it’s the only way to get a box of Mystery Booster 2 outside of going to a Magic convention. The set also contains a Secret Lair drop called Lil’ Legends, and I’d have to imagine that most people buying the product don’t actually care much about that particular product. As such, it will probably be available very cheap on the secondary market for quite some time.
Secret Lair: Festival in a Box Las Vegas 2024 Bundle
Secret Lair Drop Series
This isn’t to say that buying Superdrops is always a bad idea. I think Festival in a Box 2024 is a solid buy, mostly due to Mystery Booster 2, and I’ll always snag a Superdrop if I think I’ll actually want to own all or nearly all of the cards. Just don’t expect those extra Lairs to be “worth” anywhere close to retail once they arrive, nor should you expect them to rebound much over time unless the specific cards inside end up seeing a lot more play in the future. If you’re primarily after Lairs as an investment opportunity, skip most of the Superdrops.
Rule #4: Basic Land Lairs Hold Their Value Better Than Most
Market Price: $17.45
Market Price: $14.82
While many Secret Lairs may end up being worth quite a bit less than their initial retail price, the Basic Land Secret Lairs tend to hold their value better than most. Here are a few examples, chosen more or less randomly:
- The Full-Text Lands – $35 non-foil/$37 foil
- The Dracula Lands – $36 non-foil/$42 foil
- Shades Not Included – $40 non-foil/$40 foil
- Transformers: One Shall Stand, One Shall Fall – $45 non-foil/$50 foil
- Secret Lair x Post Malone – The Lands – $44 non-foil/$65 foil
- Featuring the Mountain Goats – $50 non-foil/$60 foil
- PixelSnowLands.jpg – $53 non-foil/$64 foil
- The Godzilla Lands – $78 foil
At worst, a lot of these lands settle in at (or around) their original retail price. At best, they can be worth between twice and three times as much. Foils tend to do better than non-foils here, too, which is less true with non-Basic Land Secret Lairs.
Why do Basic Land Lairs do so well? I think the answer is two-fold. First, the people who really end up loving each style tend to want a bunch of matching copies for their decks, which means going onto the secondary market and buying another six to twelve copies of a given land. This doesn’t happen with any other card, where most players want between one and four copies of each. Second, I think many people pass on these because spending $30+ on a bunch of Basic Lands doesn’t feel great at the moment, and these Lairs are often viewed as skippable. In truth, though, they are always among the best Lairs to snag when they’re released, and if you’re in the market for some of these lands, you shouldn’t expect to find them cheaper on the secondary market.
Rule #5: Don’t Be Fooled by Limited Print Run FOMO
Market Price: $15.95
Market Price: $19.88
Market Price: $12.95
Wizard’s foray into limited print runs this spring caused a lot of panic in the community, as folks worried that Secret Lairs would become far more inaccessible. For example, the Hatsune Miku: Sakura Superstar bundle sold out in less than a day, frustrating everyone who wanted one but didn’t pull the trigger right away.
The Sakura Superstar Bundle originally sold for $30 non-foil/$40 foil, and the secondary market price immediately surged from there. The non-foil first started pre-selling on TCGplayer for almost $200, while the foil bundle was almost at $150. These prices came down fast, though, with the foil bundle bottoming out at $37 in early July while the non-foil dropped as low as $50. Again, you would have been better off buying the non-foil one straight from Wizards, while the foil one was at least comparable at its lowest price. Regardless, though, players had an ample opportunity to buy in at or close to retail price if they were patient.
And this was for the Miku Secret Lair sold through immediately. Other lairs in the Spring Superdrop are selling for less than their original retail price. The foil Poker Faces lair is selling for just $25 now, despite being $40 originally, and you can get Goblingram for under $20. Additionally, Wizards getting rid of the timer will allow them to increase the size of each print run, since they’ll have fewer issues with deadstock if they’re allowed to keep selling each Lair until it truly runs through all printed copies.
Ultimately, then, a lot of the fear around Wizards moving from print-to-demand to a limited print run on these ended up not panning out. It has definitely made the experience of ordering the hottest new Lairs a bit more stressful, but the fact that they ship quicker is quite nice, and the expected price and availability issues have yet to materialize. I’m not meaningfully treating Secret Lairs much differently than I was before the change, and I suggest you don’t fret over it too much, either.
Rule #6: Buy Singles On “Release Weekend”
Market Price: $52.45
Market Price: $40.32
Market Price: $41.30
This is the most important rule in this article, period. If you’re skimming and looking for the one thing you could do to improve your interaction with Secret Lairs, this is it.
With normal sets, there’s a pre-order period where every new interaction is full of hype and excitement, followed by a race to the bottom on release weekend where prices bottom out, followed by (usually) a small bump as demand ends up being slightly greater than supply. After that, the card will rise or fall depending on its performance relative to its hype and price. Here’s the price chart for Three Tree City showing this pattern at work:
Market Price: $20.69
Market Price: $29.23
Market Price: $29.93
Secret Lairs work differently, but how to handle them is more or less the same. Stores and speculators order their Lairs, wait for them to ship, and then dump their singles onto the secondary market, often for below the expected market value. There’s a race to the bottom, followed by a rebound. Check out the price chart for Miku, Lost but Singing as an example:
Market Price: n/a
Market Price: n/a
As you can see, it was pretty easy to buy Miku, Lost but Singing for under $9 for a few weeks before the price started slowly climbing. It’s up to $16 now, and since Azusa, Lost but Seeking is a card with a heck of a pedigree will likely climb further in the future. Even if Azusa gets another reprint at some point soon, the Miku variant will be popular enough to command a healthy premium.
While buying the Miku Secret Lair wasn’t a bad call, snapping up key singles during the “Release Weekend” dip ended up being an even better investment. This is true of most Secret Lair cards, as it protects you from the worst downside risks of pre-ordering the Lairs themselves. It does mean that you won’t be able to hit on those rare Lairs that immediately end up being worth far more on the Secondary market than they were when directly pre-ordered from Wizards, but honestly? I’m okay with that. There aren’t many of those to begin with and they’re usually pretty obvious when they pop up.
The most difficult part of buying Secret Lair singles this way is that you kind of have to keep track of when each Lair ships and finally hits the marketplace, but if you can do that, there’s a ton of money to be made. So many people sell their Lair cards at a loss in the race to the bottom, and that’s baffling to me. Take advantage of that, and snag as many Lair cards as you want when they’re available at the marketplace during the period of peak supply. It’s the safest, best, and most effective way to profit from this series, and you don’t have to glance at the Secret Lair website to do it.