Speculating on Modern cards is one thing, but now Commander cards!? Cassie breaks down what you need to know about buying from the set.
Modern Horizons 3 is the third installment in a series of set releases that have completely reshaped the Modern format. Both of the first two Modern Horizons sets resulted in seismic metagame shifts to the point where Modern Horizons cards make up a large portion of every top deck in the format. Rakdos Evoke, the current top deck in Modern, runs four copies each of Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer, Dauthi Voidwalker, and Grief — all cards that were first introduced in Modern Horizons 2. These sets are always a really big deal.
How does Modern Horizons 3 stack up to its predecessors? It depends on how you look at it. From a strictly competitive perspective, Modern Horizons 3 might seem a tad light on potential superstars. Don’t get me wrong, I think there are (at least) a dozen cards in the set that are likely to be future staples, and probably quite a few more, but the entire set isn’t fully tuned for Modern this time. Instead, quite a few of these cards were printed with Commander in mind. That might be somewhat frustrating for Modern mages, but it should also help get people more involved in buying boxes and cracking packs. We’ll have to see if the available supply of singles is more this time around, but I suspect it might be.
Market Price: $232.31
Market Price: $64.64
Market Price: $383.14
For anyone out there who hasn’t engaged with a Modern Horizons set financially, the most important thing to know is that this is not a product with a limited print run. Boxes won’t just be available for a few weeks they will be around for at least a year, if not longer. When Modern Horizons 2 was released, Draft Booster Boxes were roughly $300. They never went above that, and you can snag one now for right around $190 shipped. Anyone who bought those boxes and kept them sealed to flip them for a profit is likely quite disappointed today.
Because Modern Horizons product is readily available, the expected value of any given booster pack of Modern Horizons 3 is likely to stay within spitting distance of the price of a sealed pack. If the number gets too far out of whack, online dealers will simply buy tons of boxes, crack them for singles, and then sell them for a profit. Then the prices will drop. There may be a short-term shortage of singles, leading to temporary price increases, because that happens with most good sets these days. The crucial thing to note here is that this price increase will likely be temporary, and the prices will level out and start to drop again in a couple of weeks. If you can be patient, you’ll be rewarded.
Of course, every set has cards that are undervalued at release, and one of the best parts of exploring a new set is trying to find out what those cards are to beat the system. Even though Modern Horizons 2 Draft, Set, and Collector Boosters have come down since the set was first released, there were quite a few cards you would have liked to snag on release weekend. For instance, here’s the price chart for Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer from when it was first printed through the end of 2022:
Market Price: $22.80
Market Price: $28.48
And here’s Fury over that same timeframe:
These aren’t the only cards I could have included, just the first two that came to mind. And even though most of the cards in Modern Horizons 2 did drop in price after release weekend, there’s still quite a bit of value in that set. Among the mythics, there’s one selling for $40+, three in the $20-$30 range, and six in the $10-$20 range. Among the Rares, there are nine still worth more than $10 each: the Enemy Fetch Lands, Urza’s Saga, Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth, Dauthi Voidwalker, and Esper Sentinel. There were also quite a few more cards that were worth more here and there, before bannings, reprints, and metagame shifts. If you play your cards right, you can absolutely get some stellar deals on Horizons cards on release weekend.
But what cards have the best shot of paying off? Which new singles are the safest, and which have the highest potential upside? Stick with me, because we’re about to get to all of that and so much more.
Which Cards Are Future Modern Staples?
One of the problems with writing articles about competitive Magic a few days before they go up is that things can change in a hurry. There may be an entire hype cycle around a card that begins and ends between me writing these words and you reading them. When in doubt, trust your gut over what I say here, especially if you have access to information that I didn’t have when writing this. With that out of the way, let’s talk about the financial future of the cards in Modern Horizons 3 with the most significant constructed potential!
The Big Three Eldrazi Mythics (Sorry, Kozilek)
Market Price: $18.68
Market Price: $26.06
At the time of publication, Emrakul, the World Anew, Ugin’s Labyrinth, and Ulamog, the Defiler are the three most expensive cards in Modern Horizons 3, full stop. Part of that is due to Commander demand, which we’ll cover later, but the most notable factor in all of their current price tags is their potential in Modern.
Are those price tags justified? Yes and no. Past iterations of the Eldrazi Titans have made a major competitive splash, and casual demand should keep the prices from dropping off all that much. The original three titans from Rise of the Eldrazi are no stronger to those kinds of valuations, and this new bunch is definitely on par. Ugin’s Labyrinth is the most obviously pushed land that we’ve seen since Boseiju, Who Endures, and we all know how that one worked out. If you asked me to bet on whether these three cards would be among the ten most expensive in Modern Horizons 3 a year from now, I’d feel very comfortable throwing a large amount of cash on the table. These cards won’t be a total bust.
But will these three cards remain the three priciest in the entire set? I’m far less certain about that. I haven’t seen much early Modern testing, but what I have seen indicates that the new Eldrazi deck is good but far from a shoo-in for the format’s top tier. If the deck doesn’t make a major tournament splash, then these cards will see a price drop, and you’ll regret buying in too soon.
The clever play right now is to stay away from all three of these cards and wait for the price to drop. That said, if you’re itching to get your Eldrazi on right now, I don’t think you’ll be crushed by snagging these cards on release weekend. There is enough casual demand to keep the price fairly high regardless, so it might be worth forking over a little extra cash to get to play with these cards on day one. Just know that going in, there’s a very minor financial upside here.
The Flip-Planeswalker Cycle
Market Price: $20.54
If you’re looking for a Modern Horizons 3 analogy to the Evoke Elementals cycle in Modern Horizons 2, these five Flip-Planeswalkers are it. All five are extremely powerful cards, and they’ve all looked far better in play during early testing than they seemed at first glance. While Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student had a lot of hype from the start, both Ajani, Nacatl Pariah and Ral, Monsoon Mage looked merely okay at first and have since gained quite a cult following. This is especially true for Ral, which spent last weekend spiking from $4 up to $12 and is still climbing today.
Market Price: $14.35
Ral, Monsoon Mage’s climb came from an Aspiringspike stream, where he showcased potential turn two wins in Modern via a Ruby Storm shell featuring Ral’s potential (along with the Modern Horizons 3 reprint Ruby Medallion, no less). While I have no idea how that deck will do once exposed to the broader metagame, it definitely makes me more excited about this card and the cycle in general. It’s easy to forget that Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy was one of the most dominant Standard cards of its era, and if these new Flip-Planeswalkers are tuned for Modern in similar ways, we’re going to see each of them make their presence known.
Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student is the member of this cycle with the most potential, though that is more than canceled out by its current price tag, which is nearly as high as the big three Eldrazi Mythics. Ajani, Nacatl Pariah has the most Commander demand of the bunch, and it’s looking really impressive everywhere, so that’s one I’m keeping a close eye on. All five of these cards might find a competitive home or two over the next few years, so keep an eye on them and buy in if you can get a good deal.
The Allied Fetch Lands
Market Price: $14.23
I don’t have much to say about the Allied Fetch Lands, since we know them quite well, and I just covered them in my card-by-card Financial Set Review. To quickly recap, I think there’s a hard floor for these cards in the $10 range, so if you can buy in around that figure and you need them in your collection, great. The Enemy Fetch Lands from Modern Horizons 2 are still close to their historic lows two years after their massive reprint, so there’s no rush here. Buy the ones you need when you need them or when there’s a good deal to be had, but feel free to ignore them otherwise.
The Flare Cycle
“Free” spells are always better than they look, and this cycle has been testing well so far. There’s some casual demand we can count on here as well, since Flare of Cultivation is going to be a future Commander staple with Flare of Denial following shortly behind.
I covered these five cards in my Financial Set Review, and I still firmly believe that most of them will be future competitive Commander staples that shine in Modern here and there. Flare of Cultivation and Flare of Denial are the ones have the best chance to make it in both formats, though Flare of Fortitude is still underrated, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it sees the most significant financial gains. I don’t think I’d touch Flare of Denial at its current price point since it’s more likely to end up as a strong sideboard card in Modern, but all of them have $30+ potential. Keep an eye on them going forward.
The Value Lands
Market Price: $14.46
Other than Ugin’s Labyrinth, these are the two lands I’m the highest on in Modern. I actually think that Shifting Woodland is a touch overrated for competitive play, but I’ve seen enough decklists than can use it effectively to feel pretty good about including it here. I’m also a lot higher on it than most when it comes to Commander play, so regardless, this is a card you should be keeping an eye on. It seems like a very safe hold to me at the moment.
Phyrexian Tower is likely to keep dropping due to price anchoring, since it dropped as low as $10 after it was reprinted in Ultimate Masters, which is about half of its current price tag. That said, if it sees significant Modern play, it could spike — and spike hard. There aren’t a ton of these around, and it has a pretty resilient history of rebounding after reprints due to casual demand alone. Feel free to snag these on release weekend if you want, or if you start to see it see significant play, but the safer play is to wait a month or two and buy in then.
The “Fixed” Modern Horizons 3 Cards
Market Price: $15.21
We’re getting into the really exciting stuff now. Necrodominance and Chthonian Nightmare are “fixed” versions of Necropotence and Recurring Nightmare, two cards that absolutely dominated their eras. It wouldn’t shock me if neither ended up seeing any Modern play, but it also wouldn’t shock me if one or both of them ended up being good enough to warrant a ban. Keep your eye on them, and get ready to pull the trigger if they start taking off. Nethergoyf is unlikely to be broken in half like the first two cards, but it’s also good enough to become a future format staple. While I’m unlikely to snag this one early, especially at current prices, I believe in the card’s future. I’ll be looking to snag a set of these at some point this summer if the price comes down a touch. ARTICLE SPOTLIGHTTop 10 Bestselling Presold Cards from Modern Horizons 3Excitement is building for Modern “rotation”, so what cards have sold best from Modern Horizons 3 so far?Emma Partlow6/7/2024
Vexing Bauble, Winter Moon, and Harbinger of the Seas are also basically guaranteed to see some Modern play. All three are fantastic sideboard options with maindeck potential, especially Vexing Bauble, so make sure you get whatever copies you need as soon as you can. Vexing Bauble was also the bestselling presold card of Modern Horizons 3, so no real need to be patient here, as these cards will be good for along time and none is over $10 right now.
The Best of the Rest in Modern Horizons 3
Market Price: $35.85
Nadu, Winged Wisdom might be the best card in Modern Horizons 3. I’m a bit lower on the dedicated Nadu Combo strategy than most people, but simply as a Simic value card, Nadu is off the charts. It does everything well, and it doesn’t take much to imagine it becoming a future Modern staple. Nadu is also a very popular new Commander, according to EDHREC, so there’s a safety valve here if I’m totally wrong about its competitive potential. Regardless, if you want to play with Nadu in the early going, you should probably snag a set on release weekend. A lot of ink is going to be spilled about this card in the coming months, and you’re likely going to have to pay up if you want to be in on the action.
As I said in my card-by-card review, I can’t recommend Ocelot Pride in Modern while so many copies of Orcish Bowmasters are still running around, but if that ever changes? Look out. This is an extremely powerful card, and it could end up having a Ragavan-like impact at some point if everything breaks its way. I’d rather snag other cards right now, but this is on my long-term list for sure.
I missed covering White Orchid Phantom in my card-by-card review, but I wanted to touch on it here. I don’t think it’s worth snagging early since the double-White mana value makes it nearly impossible to consistently cast in any deck other than Spirits or Death & Taxes, but those decks are going to love it quite a bit. There’s $7-$10 upside here eventually, so if you can snag these on the cheap at some point, you should. Lastly, Kappa Cannoneer and Amped Raptor are both kicking around the $1 range at the moment. Both are underpriced there. These cards will see play in Modern, so if you’re a Modern mage with a solid collection, you might as well snag them now and forget about them until you need them. There’s not a ton of upside here, especially since Amped Raptor is just an Uncommon, but I will snag four of each on release weekend and suggest that you do the same.
Which Modern Horizons 3 Cards are Future Commander Staples?
Market Price: $26.06
Let’s kick off this section by looking at the EDHREC rankings for Modern Horizons 3 so far. These rankings are always a tad suspect early on since they favor cards that were either previewed very early or outright spoiled well ahead of time, and that’s even more true this time around. There were loads of Modern Horizons 3 leaks over the past few months, so we’ll need to keep that in mind as we consider which cards are likely to end up as future format staples.
Setting Commons and Uncommons aside for a moment, here are all the brand new Modern Horizons 3 Rares and Mythics with an EDHREC deck count of at least 1,000 so far:
- Emrakul, the World Anew – 2,783
- Flare of Cultivation – 1,743
- Six – 1,687
- Ulamog, the Defiler – 1,661
- Shifting Woodland – 1,627
- Wight of the Reliquary – 1,415
- Echoes of Eternity – 1,367
- Warren Soultrader – 1,362
- Ugin’s Labyrinth – 1,308
- Strix Serenade – 1,185
- Kozilek, the Broken Reality – 1,106
- Fanatic of Rhonas – 1,024
- Chthonian Nightmare – 1,018
When I look at this list, it’s pretty easy to spot some trends right away. First of all, all three of the new Mythic Eldrazi Titans are on here, as well as top-tier Eldrazi enablers Ugin’s Labyrinth and Echoes of Eternity.
Whether or not the new Eldrazi make their presence known in Modern, it seems all but certain that Commander players are going to be after these cards in a pretty big way. That goes double for Emrakul, the World Anew, which has seen nearly twice as much Commander demand as any other key Eldrazi Mythics. Not only do people building dedicated Eldrazi decks want the new Emrakul, but so do a bunch of others. That’s pretty well going to cement Emrakul, the World Anew among the set’s absolute top-tier Mythic Rares. While I still think the current price tag is a touch high, Emrakul is nearly guaranteed to be one of the few most expensive cards in this set for the next several years, so you may simply have to hold your nose and pay up if you want a copy.
The other four cards that catch my eye at the top of this list are Flare of Cultivation, Six, Wight of the Reliquary, and Fanatic of Rhonas. All four are absolute top-tier ramp spells, and Commander demand should be enough to keep their price tags fairly high. Six is my favorite of this bunch, but you can make a case for any of them. Wight of the Reliquary is the cheapest of the lot right now, while Flare of Cultivation is the one with the most competitive upside, so ignore any of these cards at your own risk. Buying any of them now is totally fine, and at least, one of them will probably be worth quite a bit more by this time next year.
Shifting Woodland
Modern Horizons 3, Rare
Shifting Woodland is an interesting one. I was lukewarm on it during my card-by-card set review, and I still think it’s a touch overrated for Modern, but it’s staggeringly good in Commander and seeing a lot of market movement due to that format already. It’s super easy to hit Delirium in Commander, and this is just about the perfect Golgari card that can slot into just about any deck in the place of a Basic Land. If this card drops below $10 at any point, it’s a strong buy.
Warren Soultrader
Modern Horizons 3, Rare
Warren Soultrader is an absurd casual card. It’s the perfect sacrifice outlet that can go into decks that care about those triggers, it’s a powerful Treasure enabler, and it’s a Zombie, Goblin, or Wizard for decks that can use another elite-Kindred card. Even though I don’t think it will do much in Modern, this is the exact sort of Commander staple that could end up in the $20 range down the line. I’m in for a set.
Strix Serenade
Modern Horizons 3, Rare
Strix Serenade is another card with a bright casual future. Swan Song is over $10 despite being printed in a massive set, and Strix Serenade is just as good. Commander decks want counterspells like this, and I’ll be looking to snag a bunch of these when they bottom out. This is the exact sort of unsexy long-term spec that I adore.
Modern Horizons 3 also has a bunch of Commons and Uncommons that are already seeing loads of Commander demand. Here are my favorites:
- Urza’s Cave
- It That Heralds the End
- Sink into Stupor
- Fell the Profane
- Null Elemental Blast
- Marionette Apprentice
- Witch Enchanter
- Disciple of Freyalise
- Kozilek’s Unsealing
- Glaring Fleshraker
Most of these spells are either fantastic additions to colorless Eldrazi decks or solid non-Basic Lands, and you should look to snag these during the first few weeks of the set’s release if you want them. Top-tier Commons and Uncommons nearly always see price increases over the first few months after the set’s release, so make sure you don’t wait too long before you fill out your collection needs.
Overall Thoughts
Market Price: $15.58
Modern Horizons 3 is a set that is both very powerful and very deep. It’s quite likely that this set will have multiple breakout cards that I didn’t even touch on here, just like the last two Modern Horizons releases. The addition of Commander-focused cards is the most significant change from the previous set, but there are still a ton of future Modern staples here as well. Whether you like your Magic in 60-card eternal decks or 100-card Commander brews, this set is for you.
As discussed at the start, buying Play and Collector Boosters of any current set and holding them as an investment is likely a bad idea, but buying boxes of Modern Horizons 3 at retail to crack them for fun is totally fine. Singles prices are pretty high right now, so you’ll probably get “value” from your box, though it’s worth remembering that singles prices will drop enough over the coming weeks so that most box values will roughly match the price you paid. Even still, if you like this set and you get joy from opening packs, it’s a better deal than most Standard-legal sets. If you want to buy singles, I’d use release weekend to focus on Commons, Uncommons, cheaper Rares, cards with a high floor due to strong Commander demand, and anything you want to build and play right away. Otherwise, wait a few months and buy-in during a period of peak supply. You might miss the boat on a few breakout cards, but your overall bill will likely be cheaper.
Otherwise, pay close attention to streamers in early testing and buy in accordingly. There will almost certainly be some massive breakout hits over the coming weeks, and some cards will shoot into the high double digits as supply struggles to keep up with demand. For the most part, you should be selling into this hype, as this set will continue to be printed until everyone has enough of it. Just don’t forget to have fun, and make sure you hold onto your favorite cards. Making savvy financial decisions is great, but at the end of the day, it’s all about ensuring you have access to the cards you need to build the decks you want. And sometimes, that means paying for the coolest new cards, even if you know they won’t stay that expensive forever.