Do you feel lucky?
On July 21, 2022, Wizards of the Coast announced they found pallets of sealed 1994 Legends booster boxes in an undisclosed warehouse. As part of Magic: The Gathering’s 30th Anniversary Celebration, WotC decided to open the Legends booster boxes and insert a selection of pulled cards into Dominaria United Collector Boosters. Any players opening Dominaria Collectors Boosters will have a chance to find a Legends card in place of a common foil card.
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Legends was the first MTG set with 15 playable cards included in a booster pack. The rarity distribution in Legends booster packs is one Rare, three Uncommons, and 11 Commons (plus a rule card). There are 121 Rares in Legends, which fills an entire print sheet. Assuming equal Rare print sheet distribution, each Legends booster pack has an equal chance of containing any Rare in the set.
However, there is a known distribution issue with Legends’ uncommon print sheet collation where only half of the Uncommons appear in any given booster box. Each Uncommon grouping found in a booster box got labeled either group A or group B.
To resolve the collation issue, Wizards of the Coast offered an exchange program allowing individuals to swap Uncommons from one group for the other. According to WotC’s Lost Legends announcement, only Uncommons from group B got opened in the discovered Legends booster boxes.
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Besides the missing Uncommons, WotC decided to exclude a handful of Legends cards deemed culturally sensitive from Dominaria Collector Boosters. Among the culturally sensitive cards are seven Rares, four Uncommons, and five Commons. Notable culturally sensitive cards removed from distribution are Sylvan Library, Gwendlyn Di Corci, and Nether Void.
Let’s review some probabilities for pulling Legends cards out of Dominaria United Collector Boosters, particularly valuable Rares.
Your Odds of Opening a Legends Card
Dominaria United – Collector Booster Display
Dominaria United
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The Dominaria United Collector Booster Display contains 12 Dominaria United Collector Boosters and 1 Traditional Foil Box Topper card. Each Collector Booster contains 15 Magic: The Gathering cards and 1 Traditional Foil double-sided token, with a combination of 5–6 cards of rarity Rare or higher and 4–5 Uncommon, 4 Common, and 1 Land cards, with a total of 10–13 foil cards. Foil Borderless Mythic Rare Planeswalker in 2% of boosters …Read More
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WotC mentioned that players have about a 3% chance, or 1 in 33.33, to open a Legends card in a Dominaria United Collector Booster. Using the binomial distribution Excel formula, the probability of opening a Legends card in a Collector Booster Box is 30.62%, or 1 in 3.27. Surprisingly, there is an 88.84% chance or 1 in 1.13 to find a Legends card in 6 Collector Booster Boxes. If you wanted a close to 100% chance of finding a Legends card, you would need to open 24 Collector Booster Boxes.
| Odds | Probability | Chance to Pull a Legends Card from… |
|---|---|---|
| 1 in 33.33 | 3.00% | 1 DMU Collector Booster Pack |
| 1 in 3.27 | 30.62% | 1 DMU Collector Booster Box (12 Packs) |
| 1 in 1.13 | 88.84% | 6 DMU Collector Booster Boxes (72 Packs) |
| 1 in 1.00 | 99.98% | 24 DMU Collector Booster Boxes (288 Packs) |
Your Odds of Opening a Rare Legends Card
We can start with a baseline assumption to calculate the probability of opening a Rare Legends card from a Dominaria United Collector Booster. Legends booster packs contain one Rare out of 15 cards (excluding the rule card). If WotC evenly distributed all playable cards found in Legends booster packs, you would have a 0.20% chance, or 1 in 500, to pull a Legends Rare from a Collector Booster.
Furthermore, pulling a Legends rare from one Collector Booster Box and six Collector Booster Boxes is 2.37% or 1 in 42.13, and 13.42% or 1 in 7.45, respectively.
| Odds | Probability | Chance to Pull a Rare Legends Card from… |
|---|---|---|
| 1 in 500.00 | 0.20% | 1 DMU Collector Booster Pack |
| 1 in 42.13 | 2.37% | 1 DMU Collector Booster Box (12 Packs) |
| 1 in 7.45 | 13.42% | 6 DMU Collector Booster Boxes (72 Packs) |
| 1 in 2.28 | 43.82% | 24 DMU Collector Booster Boxes (288 Packs) |
From an outside perspective, it is unclear how WotC handled organizing and slotting Legends cards into Collector Boosters. We know WotC excluded culturally sensitive Legends Rares, Uncommons, and Commons from Collector Boosters. Since some Legends cards got removed from Collector Boosters, we cannot assume WotC evenly distributed all playable cards found in Legends boosters. We must apply additional distribution assumptions to calculate a more accurate probability.
A straightforward assumption is that WotC discarded each culturally sensitive Rare found in a Legends booster. Removing culturally sensitive Rares brings down the Legends’ Rare count to 114. Assuming WotC did not remove Legends Uncommons or Commons from distribution, the adjusted probabilities for opening a Legends Rare in a Collector Booster are as follows.
| Odds | Probability | Adjusted Chance to Pull a Rare Legends Card from… |
|---|---|---|
| 1 in 526.08 | 0.19% | 1 DMU Collector Booster Pack |
| 1 in 45.15 | 2.21% | 1 DMU Collector Booster Box (12 Packs) |
| 1 in 8.43 | 11.87% | 6 DMU Collector Booster Boxes (72 Packs) |
| 1 in 3.17 | 31.58% | 24 DMU Collector Booster Boxes (288 Packs) |
We need more details about the quantity of each Legends card found in boosters and WotC’s distribution method to calculate more accurate probabilities. However, using the information shared by WotC, the likelihood of finding a Legends rare in a Collector Booster is probably between 0.19% and 0.20%.
Your Odds of Opening a Specific Rare Legends Card
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Finding The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, Chains of Mephistopheles, or Moat in a Dominaria United Collector Booster would be amazing. Nicol Bolas or Hazezon Tamar are also excellent cards to pull out of a Collector Booster. Valuable Legends Rares are in Collector Boosters, but what is the probability of pulling a specific one?
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Discovering a Moat in a Collector Booster is not going to happen often. Using the previous assumption of 114 possible Rares and all else remaining unchanged, you have a 0.002% chance, or 1 in 60,499.4, to pull a specific Legends Rare from a Collector Booster. Finding a particular Legends Rare in a Collector Booster Box has a slightly higher probability at 0.02% or 1 in 5,042.53. If you wanted to pull The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, consider buying 24 Collector Booster Boxes for a 0.47% chance or 1 in 211.07.
| Odds | Probability | Adjusted Chance to Pull a Specific Rare Legends Card from… |
|---|---|---|
| 1 in 60,499.40 | 0.00% | 1 DMU Collector Booster Pack |
| 1 in 5,042.53 | 0.02% | 1 DMU Collector Booster Box (12 Packs) |
| 1 in 841.26 | 0.12% | 6 DMU Collector Booster Boxes (72 Packs) |
| 1 in 211.07 | 0.47% | 24 DMU Collector Booster Boxes (288 Packs) |
You would likely spend less money buying a Near Mint copy of The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale than trying to find one hidden in Dominaria United Collector Boosters. The same is true for any other Legends Rare WotC slotted into Collector Boosters. Legends card inclusions are a fun and exciting addition to Collector Boosters, but they should not be the main reason players open them. Anyone interested in acquiring specific Legends cards should consider buying them as singles.